There is not much good research that enables us to answer this question. There is one study (Baek et al, 2012) that tells us something. The data below is taken from that study.
347 patients with stage 3 CKD were studied for ten years. They were enrolled between January 1997 and December 1999, and were followed up until June 2010.
During follow-up:
- 167 patients (48%) did not progress to stage 4 or 5 CKD
- 60 (17%) progressed to stage 4 CKD
- 120 (35%) progressed to stage 5 CKD. And of those, 91 (26%) started dialysis.
Mathematical analysis showed that protein (albumin) and blood (microscopic) in the urine, predicted who would progress to worsening renal function.
Summary
In this study, about half of patients with stage 3 CKD progressed to stage 4 or 5, over 10 years. The amount of albumin and presence of blood in the urine, and stage 3 subgroup (CKD3B had a worse outlook than CKD3A) were important risk factors for progression of stage 3 CKD.
Note. This study was done at a time when there were limited treatment options to prevent progression to CKD4-5. Now with drugs such as ACE/ARBs and SGLT2i freely available, we can slow the progression of CKD in many patients.
Last Reviewed on 21 September 2023